MELD-XI score predicts in-hospital mortality independent of simplified pulmonary embolism severity index among patients with intermediate-to-high risk acute pulmonary thromboembolism

Abstract

Introduction: Acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a highly morbid and fatal condition. Although several risk stratification models exist for prediction of mortality risk in PTE, no study has yet focused on the effect of impaired vital organ function, such as renal or hepatic impairment, on mortality in PTE. MELD-XI (Model for end-stage liver disease excluding INR) score predicts mortality among patients with end-stage hepatic and cardiovascular disorders. Herein, we aimed to test MELD-XI score for predicting in-hospital prognosis of patients with intermediate-to-high risk acute PTE.

Materials and Methods: We reviewed the medical records patients older than 18 years hospitalized with intermediate-to-high risk PTE between 01.06.2011 and 01.01.2019. Simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) score and MELD-XI score were calculated, and in-hospital mortality determined. MELD-XI score was compared between patients with and without in-hospital mortality and was correlated to sPESI score. The predictive power of MELD-XI score for in-hospital mortality was sought and an in-hospital survival analysis with Kaplan Meier curve and log-rank test was done for MELD-XI score.

Results: A total of 104 patients [mean age of 70.8 +/- 15.9 years; 68 (65.4%) females]. Fourteen (13.5%) patients died at hospital. MELD-XI and sPESI scores were significantly correlated to each other and were higher in deceased patients than the survivors [17.3 (IQR 14.3) vs. 10.12 (IQR 2.99); p < 0.05 and 2 (IQR 1) vs. 1 (IQR 1); p < 0.05, respectively]. MELD-XI score and sPESI score were significant predictor of in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis. A MELD-XI score >= 10.25 had a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 70.0% for in-hospital mortality. A survival analysis revealed that a high MELD-XI category (MELD-XI score >= 10.2) significantly worsened in-hospital survival (p < 0.01; log rank test).

Conclusion: MELD-XI score performs well for mortality prediction among patients with intermediate-to-high risk PTE. This subject needs to be further studied by large, randomized controlled studies.