İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi / Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11727/1399

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Author: search.filters.author.Ozcan, Gulserimsearch.filters.applied.f.rights: search.filters.rights.info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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    Card spending dynamics in Turkey during the COVID-19 pandemic
    (2021) Kantur, Zeynep; Ozcan, Gulserim; 0000-0002-5756-6457
    This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with stringency index and unemployment-related search index. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey.
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    Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion
    (2021) Kantur, Zeynep; Ozcan, Gulserim; 0000-0002-5756-6457
    The policy debate in Turkey over the impact of interest rate on inflation concerns the question of what policymakers should do when faced with volatile and high inflation. Motivated by this discussion, we provide an empirical analysis by connecting the cost channel to the Phillips relation. Our findings prove the existence of the cost channel. However, other determinants of inflation -labor share of income, prices of imported inputs, and consumption goods -dominate the cost channel in Turkey.