A Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation Risk Model for Oil Exploration Projects

dc.contributor.author	Balas, Egemen Ander
dc.date.accessioned	2024-12-06T12:02:17Z
dc.date.available	2024-12-06T12:02:17Z
dc.date.issued	2023
dc.description.abstract	A new 3-D Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Risk Model is proposed in this study. The wind, wave, current, climate change, and tsunami sub-models of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Transport and Water Quality Model HYDROTAM-3D are interrelated with MCS, to obtain probability distributions for the simulation of environmental conditions. This is the only model that can incorporate the tsunami, storm, and sea level rise risks in oil exploration projects. The spill risk index (SRI) of 50 blue barrels spilled due to a blowout from the rig/port during fuel supply was circa 1 ton/ship as Tier I with an average annual occurrence probability of 1.0 x 10-6. The discharge of 4000 bbls for 6 h was modeled, resulting in the SRI of 546 metric tons from the riser blowout with SRI = 0.2 per meter, indicating a Tier II risk. The mean arrival time of this spill was found by MCS as 145 min.
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/11727/12477
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN
dc.subject	NUMERICAL-MODEL
dc.subject	TECHNOLOGY::Chemical engineering::Chemical process and manufacturing engineering::Molecular transport processes in chemical process engineering
dc.subject	COASTAL
dc.subject	SENSITIVITY
dc.subject	BREAKWATERS
dc.subject	SPILLS
dc.title	A Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation Risk Model for Oil Exploration Projects
dc.type	Article

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