Browsing by Author "Khalkhali, Hamid Reza"

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    Prediction of Long-term Kidney Failure in Renal Transplant With Chronic Allograft Dysfunction Using Stage-Specific Hazard Rates
    (Başkent Üniversitesi, 2012-02) Khalkhali, Hamid Reza; Ghafari, Ali
    Objectives: The process of kidney failure in renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction is characterized by a progressive decline in glomerular filtration rate over time that it is determined by the 5-stage model. This study used stage-based statistical survival analysis to predict graft survival in renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction. Materials and Methods: In a single-center, retrospective study, 214 renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction were investigated at a university hospital in Iran from 1997 to 2005. At each patient visit, kidney function was assessed using glomerular filtration rate and stage of disease. Results: The estimated stage-specific hazard rates of disease progression are stage one, 453.936; stage two, 485.040; stage three, 545.808; and stage four; 649.488 per 1000 person-years. The estimated mean times in each stage were as follows: kidney damage with normal or increased glomerular filtration rate, 26.43 months; kidney damage with mildly decreased glomerular filtration rate, 24.74 months; moderate kidney disease, 21.98 months; and severe kidney disease; 18.48 months. These estimates yield a mean time from stage 1 to kidney failure of 91.63 months. The probability of graft survival was predicted using estimated stage-specific hazard rates. The 18th, 58th, 118th, and 155th months’ death-censored graft survival probabilities were 0.99, 0.75, 0.25, and 0.10. Conclusions: In this method of survival analysis, we can determine a statistical model according to a real clinical model in renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction. It enables us to determine the stage-specific hazard rates of disease progression. These findings can help nephrologists to understand the kidney disease process and better predict graft survival.
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    Risk Factors of Long-Term Graft Loss in Renal Transplant Recipients with Chronic Allograft Dysfunction
    (Başkent Üniversitesi, 2010-12) Khalkhali, Hamid Reza; Kazemnejad, Anoushirvan; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ghafari, Ali
    Background: Graft loss owing to chronic allograft dysfunction is a major concern in renal transplant recipients. We assessed the affect of immune and nonimmune risk factors on death-censored graft loss in renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective, single-center study on 214 renal transplant recipients with chronic allograft dysfunction among 1534 renal transplant recipients at the Urmia University Hospital from 1997 to 2005. Data registry includes details from all renal transplants. The renal transplant recipient information is regularly updated to determine current graft function, graft loss, or renal transplant recipient’s death. The selection criteria were a functional renal allograft for at least 1 year and a progressive decline in allograft function. Results: Increasing donor age (RR=1.066; P < .001), recipient age (RR=1.021, P = .0), recipient weight (RR=1.024; P = .029), and waiting time on dialysis to transplant. (RR=1.047; P = .006), pretransplant hypertension (RR=3.126; P < .001), pretransplant diabetes (RR=5.787; P < .001), delayed graft function (RR=6.087; P < .001), proteinuria (RR=2.663; P = .001), posttransplant diabetes (RR=2.285; P = .015), posttransplant hypertension (RR=2.047; P = .017), and AR (RR=3.125; P < .001). Patients in stage 2 at the beginning of chronic allograft dysfunction relative to stage 1 (RR=4.823; P < .001) and patients in stage 3 at the beginning of chronic allograft dysfunction relative to stage 1 (RR=123.06; P < .001) were significant risk factors for death-censored graft loss. Using mycophenolate mofetil versus azathioprine reduced death-censored graft loss (RR=0.499; P ≤ .001). Conclusion: We found that age of donor, pretransplant hypertension, pretransplant diabetes, type of immunosuppression (mycophenolate mofetil vs azathioprine), delayed graft function, proteinuria, and stage of allograft dysfunction at the start of chronic allograft dysfunction are the major risk factors for late renal allograft dysfunction.